Coronavirus

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Sid
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1 month ago

I thought it was like swine flu but apparently it's worse, more like pneumonia?

Looks like we should be prepared to get it at some point
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FuB
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1 month ago

On what are you basing that, Sid? There's a whole lot of disinformation and scare-mongering going on so take care you don't get duped by snipped video that was going round twitter, for instance.

Pneumonia is a potential symptom that could also occur with H1N1. That could likely be down to secondary infection anyway and also bear in mind that H1N1 is, at present, far more understood and much of that with the benefit of hindsight.

As far as being prepared to get it...

I think it's important to take note that it, so far, appears to give 80% of people only mild symptoms. You know where I live and, to narrow it down a little bit for you, I actually live about 5km from where the first reported Italian death came from. It seems fairly clear, given they're finding it extremely hard to determine "patient zero" (and now even in the States and UK they're finding cases that just have no obvious link to a known source), it was here for quite some time before the first cases were discovered. I'd hazard a guess it's been enough time for us to even be seeing a second wave rather than the initial one.

Problem is that we're all so used to "having a cold", it's not necessarily clear what type of "cold" you have. The symptoms are all broadly similar so how do you really know you've got coronavirus, influenza, adenovirus or rhinovirus unless you get tested for it? And who gets tested for it... unless there's been a case to indicate it's there in your immediate environment? And who was worried that it was... until there was a case in their immediate environment?

How many of you have had "a cold" in the last few weeks? I have. My wife has. My father-in-law is just getting over one (and that's obviously something that rang some alarm bells). I also have several colleagues in the UK who've had colds within the same timeframe and one of whom was off for over a week with breathing difficulties. My sister has a couple of colleagues who had recently or still were off with severe colds including breathing difficulties when I spoke to her last week.

Much has been made of Italy being in some sort of crisis and it's definitely worrying but, hopefully, not yet out of control. I've just checked the health ministry's official figures and we're over 1000 now but, crucially, it also states that over 500 of those cases are people who have been isolated at home because they are asymptomatic but positive. Just over 500 have actually been taken to hospital with symptoms and, of those, just over 100 are in intensive care. 29 people have died and 50 people, including the first three cases (two of whom were Chinese tourists), have recovered. This is in just over a week from finding a few isolated cases. Crucially, though, the Italian health authorities have actually been testing for it! It was only a couple of days ago the NHS thought "oh, maybe we should see if any of these things that are probably just flu might not be". That's about how it happened for the first man who died here nearby to me. They thought it was flu - the symptoms are broadly the same. They were following exactly the same general procedures the NHS has been, namely to only test people with symptoms who have had contact with a known problem area (i.e. the far east at the time).
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Sid
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1 month ago

FuB wrote:
1 month ago
On what are you basing that, Sid? There's a whole lot of disinformation and scare-mongering going on so take care you don't get duped by snipped video that was going round twitter, for instance.

Pneumonia is a potential symptom that could also occur with H1N1. That could likely be down to secondary infection anyway and also bear in mind that H1N1 is, at present, far more understood and much of that with the benefit of hindsight.

As far as being prepared to get it...

I think it's important to take note that it, so far, appears to give 80% of people only mild symptoms. You know where I live and, to narrow it down a little bit for you, I actually live about 5km from where the first reported Italian death came from. It seems fairly clear, given they're finding it extremely hard to determine "patient zero" (and now even in the States and UK they're finding cases that just have no obvious link to a known source), it was here for quite some time before the first cases were discovered. I'd hazard a guess it's been enough time for us to even be seeing a second wave rather than the initial one.

Problem is that we're all so used to "having a cold", it's not necessarily clear what type of "cold" you have. The symptoms are all broadly similar so how do you really know you've got coronavirus, influenza, adenovirus or rhinovirus unless you get tested for it? And who gets tested for it... unless there's been a case to indicate it's there in your immediate environment? And who was worried that it was... until there was a case in their immediate environment?

How many of you have had "a cold" in the last few weeks? I have. My wife has. My father-in-law is just getting over one (and that's obviously something that rang some alarm bells). I also have several colleagues in the UK who've had colds within the same timeframe and one of whom was off for over a week with breathing difficulties. My sister has a couple of colleagues who had recently or still were off with severe colds including breathing difficulties when I spoke to her last week.

Much has been made of Italy being in some sort of crisis and it's definitely worrying but, hopefully, not yet out of control. I've just checked the health ministry's official figures and we're over 1000 now but, crucially, it also states that over 500 of those cases are people who have been isolated at home because they are asymptomatic but positive. Just over 500 have actually been taken to hospital with symptoms and, of those, just over 100 are in intensive care. 29 people have died and 50 people, including the first three cases (two of whom were Chinese tourists), have recovered. This is in just over a week from finding a few isolated cases. Crucially, though, the Italian health authorities have actually been testing for it! It was only a couple of days ago the NHS thought "oh, maybe we should see if any of these things that are probably just flu might not be". That's about how it happened for the first man who died here nearby to me. They thought it was flu - the symptoms are broadly the same. They were following exactly the same general procedures the NHS has been, namely to only test people with symptoms who have had contact with a known problem area (i.e. the far east at the time).
I haven't seen anything other than an article some "health experts" wrote on the guardian about the myths. And what the top bollocks health bloke said (badically be prepared to get it). I've deliberately dodged twitter because it's fucking hysterical and batshit (Chinese conspiracy etc)

But despite that reading your post has put me more at ease, so I must have been affected by the scaremongering to a degree. I thought it was pneumonia out right rather than that being just one possible outcome. Also didn't know so many people have only had mild symptoms. The media put the deaths alongside the people that have it, so you assume it's killing loads more than it is.

It's times like this when you see how much of a bad idea it is to empower incompetent posh boys from Eton etc to handle a crisis like this, and how the media basically just live of fear and sensationalism.
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FuB
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1 month ago

Sid wrote:
1 month ago
I haven't seen anything other than an article some "health experts" wrote on the guardian about the myths. And what the top bollocks health bloke said (badically be prepared to get it). I've deliberately dodged twitter because it's fucking hysterical and batshit (Chinese conspiracy etc)

But despite that reading your post has put me more at ease, so I must have been affected by the scaremongering to a degree. I thought it was pneumonia out right rather than that being just one possible outcome. Also didn't know so many people have only had mild symptoms. The media put the deaths alongside the people that have it, so you assume it's killing loads more than it is.

It's times like this when you see how much of a bad idea it is to empower incompetent posh boys from Eton etc to handle a crisis like this, and how the media basically just live of fear and sensationalism.
I agree on that. It does sort of feel like they're all there rubbing their hands with glee making everyone think it's the zombie apocalypse. They never bother to report on the thousands of people who die year upon year from flu. The difference there is, unless there's a novel type like H1N1, no one's dealing with an "unknown". The fact that this is a novel coronavirus and appears pretty contagious is perfect for the press to scare the shit out of people with. Even when they report factual numbers, you're right in that the emphasis is on the scarier ones like number of deaths. All the data so far still shows that the mortality rate is around 1-2% and that's similar levels to influenza.

Don't get me wrong, there's clearly cause for worry and, however things turn out, the fear alone is already causing potentially long term financial effects for the future. That's on top of the actual real problems. The simple fact that there is a mortality rate is not something to treat lightly and, despite having a fairly rational head for these things, i'd be lying if i didn't admit there was some amount of worry at the back on my mind... especially given the proximity of things. I'm truly surprised we haven't had the explosion that Lombardy has... yet.
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Sid
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1 month ago

FuB wrote:
1 month ago
Sid wrote:
1 month ago
I haven't seen anything other than an article some "health experts" wrote on the guardian about the myths. And what the top bollocks health bloke said (badically be prepared to get it). I've deliberately dodged twitter because it's fucking hysterical and batshit (Chinese conspiracy etc)

But despite that reading your post has put me more at ease, so I must have been affected by the scaremongering to a degree. I thought it was pneumonia out right rather than that being just one possible outcome. Also didn't know so many people have only had mild symptoms. The media put the deaths alongside the people that have it, so you assume it's killing loads more than it is.

It's times like this when you see how much of a bad idea it is to empower incompetent posh boys from Eton etc to handle a crisis like this, and how the media basically just live of fear and sensationalism.
I agree on that. It does sort of feel like they're all there rubbing their hands with glee making everyone think it's the zombie apocalypse. They never bother to report on the thousands of people who die year upon year from flu. The difference there is, unless there's a novel type like H1N1, no one's dealing with an "unknown". The fact that this is a novel coronavirus and appears pretty contagious is perfect for the press to scare the shit out of people with. Even when they report factual numbers, you're right in that the emphasis is on the scarier ones like number of deaths. All the data so far still shows that the mortality rate is around 1-2% and that's similar levels to influenza.

Don't get me wrong, there's clearly cause for worry and, however things turn out, the fear alone is already causing potentially long term financial effects for the future. That's on top of the actual real problems. The simple fact that there is a mortality rate is not something to treat lightly and, despite having a fairly rational head for these things, i'd be lying if i didn't admit there was some amount of worry at the back on my mind... especially given the proximity of things. I'm truly surprised we haven't had the explosion that Lombardy has... yet.
That's what the guardian article said. 400k die of the flu every year annually, and coronavirus is worse but not by much. So that puts it into context.
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FuB
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1 month ago

Sid wrote:
1 month ago
That's what the guardian article said. 400k die of the flu every year annually, and coronavirus is worse but not by much. So that puts it into context.
Having done a bit more reading of what I feel fairly confident are reliable sources, it looks like SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is, so far, coming in at around 2-2.5% and potentially, up to 3% mortality rate. This does actually make it "twenty times" more deadly than flu but these are early days, early numbers and small number statistics regularly throw up scary conclusions (you know, like an increase from 1 to 2 is 100% but a decrease from 2 to 1 is 50%... think about it).

That said, I think comparing these things is a bit counter-productive. It's like comparing being hit by a bus to being hit by a lorry. Depending upon the circumstances, the outcomes can be similar but are you really checking the make and model?

Regarding press coverage again... it's, of course, important to have as much information out there as possible but an awful lot of the journalism seems to barely contain their underlying excitement. Let's see how that one pans out if/when the journalists in question lose an (maybe not even) elderly relative.
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Edfuckingwoodward
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1 month ago

The mortality rate is based purely against a baseline of known cases. I'm convinced that there'll be many, many more people who've been infected but displayed little to no symptoms. To your point earlier, my family (as part of a group of 16) came back from a week's holiday in Turkey only 7 days ago. Nearly half of us have had some form of cold type illness since, but only 1 of us has had to take any time off work as a result, and that person has Asthma which generally makes such illnesses more pronounced.

The level of reaction we're seeing world wide indicates a different agenda to me. Either there's more to this virus than is being said publicly - which sounds a bit too tin hat to me - or the 'over reaction' is being engineered to a different end. Expect new laws which control the extent to which people can congregate/socialize publicly,+ or how your movements can be tracked and documented - then shared with various agencies. Again, that probably sounds a bit too 'tin foil hat' for many.
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FuB
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1 month ago

Edfuckingwoodward wrote:
1 month ago
The mortality rate is based purely against a baseline of known cases. I'm convinced that there'll be many, many more people who've been infected but displayed little to no symptoms. To your point earlier, my family (as part of a group of 16) came back from a week's holiday in Turkey only 7 days ago. Nearly half of us have had some form of cold type illness since, but only 1 of us has had to take any time off work as a result, and that person has Asthma which generally makes such illnesses more pronounced.

The level of reaction we're seeing world wide indicates a different agenda to me. Either there's more to this virus than is being said publicly - which sounds a bit too tin hat to me - or the 'over reaction' is being engineered to a different end. Expect new laws which control the extent to which people can congregate/socialize publicly,+ or how your movements can be tracked and documented - then shared with various agencies. Again, that probably sounds a bit too 'tin foil hat' for many.
I agree on the mortality rate being based on what they know. I've pointed out above that no fucker presents themselves at the doctors for "a cold" and "a cold" has such a wide range of symptoms that what one person might feel is enough to lay them out for a week, another will soldier on and go to work to infect everyone else.

Sid'll probably be all over your tin hat leanings there but i'm not really so inclined to think that way. The way I see it is the Chinese stupidly or wantonly tried to ignore it and hush it up. Big mistake because the cat was out of the bag and long gone...
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bman2
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1 month ago

The fatality rate of 2-3% is high for a virus that looks like it might have the potential to infect a large share of the general population. But the fatality rate also increases a lot when medical resources are stretched. It was close to 10% at the epicentre in China, in the early days, before they knew what they were dealing with and devoted massive resources. China built new hospitals in days just for coronavirus patients and shut down massive cities to control the number of new infections to a manageable level. Can the UK do that? If NHS beds and doctors run out, the 15-20% of cases that are serious are warrant medical intervention will start claiming a lot more lives.
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bman2
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1 month ago

And if you're in your 70s or 80s, you should be really worried.
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