Coronavirus

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Sid
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5 months ago

FuB wrote:
5 months ago
swampash wrote:
5 months ago
Hi Fuß - I posted the link to his blog because you asked, in a previous post, who he was. The reason I was interested in what he had to say was because I think it is important to at least listen to other opinions, as no one has a monopoly on the right way to deal with this. One might decide other options don't make sense, but I do think a wide range of experts should be heard out.
Re. malaria, my point, probably poorly expressed, is that if there is a prophylactic level of anti-malarials present in countries such as Rwanda, it might provide a real-time test of their ability to suppress the Corona virus. Not sure of the scientific basis of this, but it was a thought that crossed my mind when I read the article.
Hi swampash... yes, i appreciated you doing that. I agree that no one has a monopoly on the right way to deal with this - however, that is purely governed by this being a hitherto unknown disease. It does beg the question as to what's the point of the WHO if no one is going to listen to them, though.

In an age where something as ridiculous as flat earth is gaining some traction because idiots will watch youtube and people with some sort of authority or assumed authority can influences masses of society, it's not so helpful in a crisis for people to stand up and give mixed messages.

no one having a monopoly allows this bellend to say this: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sta ... o-the-pub-

and this bellend to do this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video ... osis-video

I suspect they both will be ruing those words and actions now. Those words and actions could probably be demonstrably linked to a cost of lives and not just that of one of the perpetrators. I don't wish ill on him but i do hope history records his contribution accurately, regardless of the outcome of his own predicament.
This. And lets not forget these cunts were going to sacrifice 2-400,000 people with their herd immunity "strategy, that isn't a strategy at all, but inaction.
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Sid
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5 months ago

UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts

The analysts claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-predicts
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swampash
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5 months ago

There is a house to house study running in Munich at the moment, which is trying to get a proper fix on the proportion of the population that are infected, but haven't been tested, so don't turn up in the official number of cases recorded. It would include, I think, those who have the virus but don't know it. Be really interesting to see the results.
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits...
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FuB
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5 months ago

swampash wrote:
5 months ago
There is a house to house study running in Munich at the moment, which is trying to get a proper fix on the proportion of the population that are infected, but haven't been tested, so don't turn up in the official number of cases recorded. It would include, I think, those who have the virus but don't know it. Be really interesting to see the results.
It will certainly be interesting however what it won't discover is how many people have already recovered - and had it with or without knowing they were ill with CoVid-19. The transmissability (R0) of this virus is well over 2 (the results are still out on that, really... could be way higher) and the incubation time appears to be anything from 2 days to 2 weeks with typical onset of symptoms around 5 days. First infections (especially in Munich - see an earlier post of mine) were more than a month ago. I won't show the maths here because it'll upset Sid :D.

My point is that, whilst it's an interesting study to carry out, it's so late to the party as to be sort of lost in it's own likely inaccuracies and assumptions.

They did the same study straight away in Vo' Euganeo as soon as they locked it down (pretty much immediately). This was one of the first clusters (and the residence of the first fatality in Italy). The study found that 50-75% of those infected were completely asymptomatic at the time of the test... with a viral load equivalent to those showing symptoms.

This is not to say there is no validity in the Munich study. What it will achieve is taking the asymptomatics out of the equation and is precisely why the WHO keep saying "test, test, test".
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swampash
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5 months ago

Hi Fuß - I think I'm right in saying they were also going to try and get data on those who have had it and recovered. I'm not sure if this will be simply by asking the question or if they now have an antibody test. I'll keep my ears open.

I just checked your post re. Munich. There were also reports here of infections spreading from a business meeting where an infected Chinese businessman was present, but I'm not sure it was the same meeting. Am I right in thinking, though, that the garments industry in northern Italy employed a lot of Chinese workers?
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FuB
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5 months ago

My understanding is that there's no reliable antibody test at present. This is one of the main issues, really and, with respect to the scientists doing the checking up in Munich as i'm sure they are fully aware, anyone who was asymptomatic isn't going to know they were ill so you're going to miss a whole dataset.

Chinese workers... well, i think the last thing i want to get involved in is suggesting the Chinese wandered around spreading it and considering the fact that there are many ethnic Chinese here (as there are all over the world) is a huge opportunity to put two and two together to make five. Of course, the facts show that this thing originated in China and that people (regardless of ethnicity) are the vectors in transmission. I believe the hypothesis by Galli was that a Chinese (asymptomatic) national brought it over to a business meeting in Munich and it was an Italian national bringing it here from that meeting. It's fairly irrelevant who, why and how... i think the important things to note is that Italy closing borders to China at the outset was pointless when the Schengen zone makes Europe's borders the actual frontier and that this disease has been so easily and quickly spread by people who just didn't know they had it.

One last thing on the Chinese in Italy: There's a Chinese hairdresser just round the corner from where i live and they shut the shop with a note on the door stating due to the current issues almost immediately. At least two weeks before anywhere was forced to close. There were other Chinese connected to my wife's school who were imploring the municipality to test them because they'd been away at Christmas. Again, long before anything big kicked off here. I neglected to mention it at the time because everything was so surreal at the beginning and my interest was centred around the behaviour of people in general and their total ambivalence and ignorance towards any notion of a threat. If anything, the Chinese were the ONLY people taking this seriously from the outset.
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Sid
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5 months ago

Hundreds of UK care home deaths not added to official coronavirus toll

Care England, the industry body, estimated that the death toll is likely to be close to 1,000, despited the only available official figure for care home fatalities being dramatically lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... icial-toll

They're not testing for it on care homes. It's mad. They should be one of the first cos they're most at risk. Can't help thinking this is more Tory eugenics.
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bman2
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5 months ago

Sid wrote:
5 months ago
Hundreds of UK care home deaths not added to official coronavirus toll

Care England, the industry body, estimated that the death toll is likely to be close to 1,000, despited the only available official figure for care home fatalities being dramatically lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... icial-toll

They're not testing for it on care homes. It's mad. They should be one of the first cos they're most at risk. Can't help thinking this is more Tory eugenics.
The fatality numbers are missing a lot of people in every country. Care homes is a factor, people dying at home too. Every country adds more deaths a few weeks or even months after the fact, when officials have the time to do more thorough accounting and analysis. I've read that this is what always happens during epidemics. There were also more deaths that went unacknowledged early on, when they were just attributed to pneumonia, especially among the old. The latest daily numbers are usually basically just people who died in hospital, and even then some corona victims will go uncounted at first because they died without being officially tested.
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swampash
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5 months ago

Re. the Munich survey; I realise that on an individual basis the error rate is problematic but in a representative sample, if you know the error rate for the antibody test, can't you factor that in to the results to still give you a good steer on what proportion of the population are likely to be carrying the antibodies?
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Sid
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5 months ago

bman2 wrote:
5 months ago
Sid wrote:
5 months ago
Hundreds of UK care home deaths not added to official coronavirus toll

Care England, the industry body, estimated that the death toll is likely to be close to 1,000, despited the only available official figure for care home fatalities being dramatically lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... icial-toll

They're not testing for it on care homes. It's mad. They should be one of the first cos they're most at risk. Can't help thinking this is more Tory eugenics.
The fatality numbers are missing a lot of people in every country. Care homes is a factor, people dying at home too. Every country adds more deaths a few weeks or even months after the fact, when officials have the time to do more thorough accounting and analysis. I've read that this is what always happens during epidemics. There were also more deaths that went unacknowledged early on, when they were just attributed to pneumonia, especially among the old. The latest daily numbers are usually basically just people who died in hospital, and even then some corona victims will go uncounted at first because they died without being officially tested.
From the guardian

About half of all Covid-19 deaths appear to be happening in care homes in some European countries, according to early figures gathered by UK-based academics who are warning that the same effort must be put into fighting the virus in care homes as in the NHS.

Snapshot data from varying official sources shows that in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium between 42% and 57% of deaths from the virus have been happening in homes, according to the report by academics based at the London School of Economics (LSE).

So the deaths in care homes is probably bigger than even Care England reckon, especially given that we're on course to be the worst affected European country
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