Coronavirus

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FuB
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6 months ago

swampash wrote:
6 months ago
If there's no such thing as a herd immunity strategy, why was it raised here in Germany as a possibility when health experts first began debating how best to deal with the problem. It also seems to be the strategy that Sweden are following.
As for your question – I’m simply not getting drawn into a petty public sniping exercise, especially when some people’s nerves are clearly a bit raw. You can always PM if you want to.
but you publicly stated that it was "hysterical nonsense" in your opinion. I'm not interested in a sniping exercise. I'm interested in whether you've now reevaluated your opinion
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FuB
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6 months ago

swampash wrote:
6 months ago
If there's no such thing as a herd immunity strategy, why was it raised here in Germany as a possibility when health experts first began debating how best to deal with the problem. It also seems to be the strategy that Sweden are following.
As for your question – I’m simply not getting drawn into a petty public sniping exercise, especially when some people’s nerves are clearly a bit raw. You can always PM if you want to.
As i already explained in my previous response... it's not a strategy. it's just fucking winging it and hoping for the deaths to not get out of hand. it's insulting to refer to it as a "strategy" because that implies some sort of intelligence behind it rather than relying on blind luck.

I've said plenty of times that "herd immunity" is the end game here regardless. The first place in the world likely to reach herd immunity will almost certainly be Bergamo... at a hell of a cost of life.

As i stated previously it's not yet well-understood what SARS-CoV-2's mode of action is so "identifying those most at risk" is literally pissing in the wind and making some best-guess estimates. Those best guesses are certainly valid but they're all based on assumptions and led by understanding of other diseases.

However, there is data available so: Sweden...

First off, see this: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... zo_eng.pdf and, in particular page 3 which is a list of pre-existing conditions in a small sample (481) of patients who have sadly lost their lives. Note that the highest number of cases suffered from hypertension as the only or one of up to three existing conditions.

Hypertension is estimated to affect up to a quarter of the world population. Here - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf ... /jch.13149 - they suggest that up to 27% of the adult Swedish population suffers from hypertension. All of those people could be reasonably labelled as "at risk" from serious or fatal consequences of contracting CoVid-19. Strategise for that...
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Edfuckingwoodward
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6 months ago

On herd immunity - population density has to be part of the thinking. For example, Sweden has a population of 10m and a land made of 450,000 km2. The UK has 66m and a land mass of 250,000 km2. Or put another way 22 people per square km against 264.

So for Sweden, the speed of the spread would presumably be much slower and you could account for the health system being less exposed as herd immunity builds.

For a densely populated country like the UK its not really an option. I think that was the 'oh shit' moment that the government had a couple of weeks ago.
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FuB
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6 months ago

Edfuckingwoodward wrote:
6 months ago
On herd immunity - population density has to be part of the thinking. For example, Sweden has a population of 10m and a land made of 450,000 km2. The UK has 66m and a land mass of 250,000 km2. Or put another way 22 people per square km against 264.

So for Sweden, the speed of the spread would presumably be much slower and you could account for the health system being less exposed as herd immunity builds.

For a densely populated country like the UK its not really an option. I think that was the 'oh shit' moment that the government had a couple of weeks ago.
yeah, i said that straight away when swampash first brought sweden up (viewtopic.php?p=161443#p161443)

Even so, it's still important to clarify that there IS such a thing as herd immunity and that's the end game for the world population. When you reach that and how you reach that are open to judgment calls in all cases. There's not going to be a one size fits all mechanism for the reason you've just pointed out amongst MANY other reasons, both known and unknown at present. To suggest that something known as "herd immunity strategy" is a thing and that Sweden are following some sort of known protocol is absolute bollocks. They may well be right for their own particular set of circumstances and their health system is coping. If that gets overwhelmed - even on a small area local level - things can quickly get out of hand and they will rue the decisions they have taken.
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Sid
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6 months ago

Swamps is still trolling, he isn't seeking an answer for his question, more a reaction. It's basic Reddit trolling. It's either cos he's still being comicly dumb - like dumber than those two racist idiots that got banned - or cos he's having to double down after being the ignorant boomer stereotype he'll think he's not

It will go one of two ways, he'll either get lucky and he / no one he knows will suffer or die and he'll be all see, I was right. Or they will, and he'll be devastated, and probably not come back.
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FuB
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6 months ago

Sid wrote:
6 months ago
Swamps is still trolling, he isn't seeking an answer for his question, more a reaction. It's basic Reddit trolling. It's either cos he's still being comicly dumb - like dumber than those two racist idiots that got banned - or cos he's having to double down after being the ignorant boomer stereotype he'll think he's not

It will go one of two ways, he'll either get lucky and he / no one he knows will suffer or die and he'll be all see, I was right. Or they will, and he'll be devastated, and probably not come back.
maybe he is trolling and maybe he's not. either way, i don't really want this to be a mean-spirited discussion.

i've certainly found (and said so) a few of the things he said early on to be insensitive at best and i am genuinely interested as to whether, as things have progressed, he's begun to see things in a different light. he certainly wasn't alone in thinking this was blown out of all proportion so, if he's come round to a different way of thinking, i'm interested to know at what point it wasn't funny any more. i don't want to know so i can get all "i told you so" with him although i'm sure that's what he thinks the intention is.

as for the failing to understand my point, i'm more than happy for it to be just because i don't explain myself well enough. he could engage better than just asking why some "health experts" on tv apparently talked about a "herd immunity strategy". I'd be interested in their scientific credentials and i'd be interested if he's taken any time to try and find something in the scientific literature which mentions such a concept.

The issue, for me, is in the terminology. As i keep saying, the end game (however you get there) is so called "herd immunity". Putting the word "strategy" after that is totally meaningless. To make an analogy, if you went to some chess players and announced you'd come up with a "checkmate strategy" they'd likely ask "well, how are you arriving at checkmate?". The strategy is in how you arrive at the end game, not the end game itself so, to that end, literally EVERY "strategy" even if it's haphazard and ridiculous is as much a "herd immunity strategy" as any other. It's not a defined concept and can't be because the terminology is nonsense.

It's entirely clear to me what swampash means in terms of the Swedish approach and i've already indicated that it's really difficult for me to see a "let's hope we luck it out" plan as any sort of informed strategy at all. I'm not alone... the WHO (and plenty others) agree on the idea of a fast-burn epidemic as a terribly cruel and unnecessary waste of life.
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Sid
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6 months ago

UK hospital death toll rises by 563 to 2,352

Big increase in deaths. We're following Italy like for like. Also notice how the guardian are now describing that number as "hospital deaths" - cos the stats only account for those in hospital, not care homes, people's homes etc.
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swampash
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6 months ago

Fuß: I’ve always thought a straight question deserves a straight answer, so yes, I think I totally misjudged how serious this was going to be.
Scandalous really.
No justification but, at the time, the schools were open, football crowds were safe, the government’s advice was limited to ‘wash your hands’, but people were busy panic buying bog roll.
I also have an innate tendency to react sceptically whenever a politician tells me he knows what’s best for me – especially when it’s the same people who brought you Brexit.
What I wasn’t going to engage with was the vitriolic posts.
To those I have unintentionally offended: sorry.

Sid: who the fuck is redit?
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits...
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Sid
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6 months ago

swampash wrote:
6 months ago
Fuß: I’ve always thought a straight question deserves a straight answer, so yes, I think I totally misjudged how serious this was going to be.
Scandalous really.
No justification but, at the time, the schools were open, football crowds were safe, the government’s advice was limited to ‘wash your hands’, but people were busy panic buying bog roll.
I also have an innate tendency to react sceptically whenever a politician tells me he knows what’s best for me – especially when it’s the same people who brought you Brexit.
What I wasn’t going to engage with was the vitriolic posts.
To those I have unintentionally offended: sorry.

Sid: who the fuck is redit?
You haven't offended me, I just thought the way you were behaving was genuinely embarrassing, and would come back to haunt you cos this is serious. But your backtracking seems genuine so fair do's.

Reddit is a huge website which is decent for the most part but also contains the worst people on earth. Have a read of the Trump threads or the incel section and avail yourself of the various redditor stereotypes.
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Edfuckingwoodward
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6 months ago

13.4b of NHS debt written off, just like that. Magic fucking wand. Why's it taken a global crisis? Why not position the country's most important institution to be successful and adequately funded, properly run BEFORE there's a fucking health meltdown??
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